LaLiga round 30 snapshot
Monte Carlo probabilities for every LaLiga club after round 30.
Last updated 2026-05-19
Round 30 summary
After round 30, Barcelona leads the LaLiga title race, winning the league in 97.3% of our Monte Carlo simulations and projected to finish on 95.7 points. Real Madrid is the nearest challenger at 2.7% title probability, with Champions League places contested among the rest of the top half. At the other end of the table Oviedo carries the highest relegation risk at 97.1%, followed by Levante (70.2%). Every probability below is recomputed from scratch each week, combining ELO ratings updated from real match results with hundreds of thousands of remaining-season simulations.
| # | Team | xPts | xPos | Most likely | ELO |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Barcelona | 95.7 | 1.0 | #1 (100.0%) | 1822 |
| 2 | Real Madrid | 85.1 | 2.0 | #2 (100.0%) | 1695 |
| 3 | Villarreal | 70.8 | 3.3 | #3 (72.9%) | 1584 |
| 4 | Atletico Madrid | 70.0 | 3.7 | #4 (72.9%) | 1594 |
| 5 | Betis | 58.8 | 5.0 | #5 (100.0%) | 1560 |
| 6 | Celta Vigo | 52.8 | 6.0 | #6 (100.0%) | 1517 |
| 7 | Getafe | 49.6 | 7.4 | #7 (68.6%) | 1490 |
| 8 | Rayo Vallecano | 48.1 | 8.5 | #9 (33.3%) | 1522 |
| 9 | Valencia | 47.0 | 10.0 | #10 (28.3%) | 1489 |
| 10 | Real Sociedad | 46.3 | 10.2 | #9 (21.5%) | 1479 |
| 11 | Espanyol | 46.4 | 10.9 | #9 (19.5%) | 1414 |
| 12 | Athletic Club | 45.8 | 12.4 | #13 (26.3%) | 1400 |
| 13 | Alaves | 44.6 | 12.8 | #11 (23.0%) | 1433 |
| 14 | Sevilla | 44.0 | 14.3 | #16 (24.9%) | 1429 |
| 15 | Osasuna | 43.1 | 14.9 | #16 (27.1%) | 1433 |
| 16 | Elche | 42.9 | 16.0 | #17 (28.2%) | 1448 |
| 17 | Levante | 43.0 | 16.3 | #18 (27.2%) | 1504 |
| 18 | Girona | 41.9 | 16.9 | #19 (26.3%) | 1426 |
| 19 | Mallorca | 40.7 | 18.4 | #19 (56.1%) | 1414 |
| 20 | Oviedo | 30.1 | 20.0 | #20 (100.0%) | 1345 |