Summary

Rayo Vallecano is in the hunt for continental football, with a 20.2% chance of reaching the Europa League next season. The model projects Rayo Vallecano to finish on 48.1 points and in position 8.5 on average, with the most likely final placement being #9 (33.3% of runs). Their current ELO rating is 1522, which is updated from real match results after every matchday before the next simulation batch runs. All probabilities below are refreshed weekly from the latest LaLiga match data; click through to the interactive dashboard to compare Rayo Vallecano against every other club in the division.

Season outlook

Most likely finishing positions

• #9
  33.3%
• #8
  30.7%
• #7
  20.2%
• #10
  14.4%
• #11
  1.5%

Upcoming matches — Rayo Vallecano

Probabilities computed by running the remaining LaLiga schedule through our ELO-based Monte Carlo model. xG (expected goals) is estimated from each team's attack and defence ratings relative to their opponent.

How we compute these

Every week we rebuild ELO ratings for each club from historical match data, then run hundreds of thousands of Monte Carlo simulations of the remaining LaLiga fixtures.Rayo Vallecano's row above shows the distribution of final league positions across those simulations, aggregated into the competitive outcomes that matter.