How It Works
Simulation Methodology
This project simulates the remainder of LaLiga, Premier and LaLiga Hypermotion using advanced probabilistic modeling. For each league, we run hundreds of thousands of full-season simulations (Monte Carlo method), forecasting every remaining match based on a dynamic Elo rating system. Elo scores are updated after each game based on real historical results, home/away advantage, and scoring margins. Using these simulations, we estimate the probability of each team finishing in every position.
Data Collection
Statistical Analysis
Simulation Execution
Interpreting the Results
The tables show the probability distribution for each team finishing in each league position. Darker colors represent higher probabilities. You can easily spot which teams are most likely to secure promotion, enter the playoff zone, or face relegation.
The intensity of the color indicates the probability level. Darker colors represent higher probabilities.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is direct promotion?
In LaLiga Hypermotion, the top two teams are directly promoted to LaLiga. In LaLiga and Premier, the top five teams qualify for the UEFA Champions League. This site computes the probability of each team achieving these outcomes.
What is the playoff?
In LaLiga Hypermotion, teams ranked 3rd to 6th enter a playoff for the final promotion spot. We simulate all these matches to estimate final promotion probabilities.
What is relegation?
In LaLiga, the bottom 3 teams are relegated to LaLiga Hypermotion. In LaLiga Hypermotion, the bottom 4 are relegated to Primera RFEF. In Premier, the bottom 3 are also relegated to EFL Championship. We calculate the chances of falling into these zones.
How often is the data updated?
We update the data after every matchday using the latest standings and match results. Elo ratings are recalculated accordingly before running new simulations.
Where does the data come from?
Match data is scraped from FBref and combined with historical performance to calibrate Elo models. All code for scraping, simulating and serving the data is developed in-house.