Current state of the league

After round 37, Arsenal leads the Premier League title race, winning the league in 84.2% of our Monte Carlo simulations and projected to finish on 83.9 points. Manchester City is the nearest challenger at 15.8% title probability, with Champions League places contested among the rest of the top half. At the other end of the table Burnley carries the highest relegation risk at 100.0%, followed by Wolves (100.0%). Every probability below is recomputed from scratch each week, combining ELO ratings updated from real match results with hundreds of thousands of remaining-season simulations.