Summary

Arsenal is the overwhelming Premier League title favourite, winning the league in 84.2% of our Monte Carlo simulations. The model projects Arsenal to finish on 83.9 points and in position 1.2 on average, with the most likely final placement being #1 (84.2% of runs). Their current ELO rating is 1721, which is updated from real match results after every matchday before the next simulation batch runs. All probabilities below are refreshed weekly from the latest Premier League match data; click through to the interactive dashboard to compare Arsenal against every other club in the division.

Season outlook

Most likely finishing positions

• #1
  84.2%
• #2
  15.8%

Upcoming matches — Arsenal

Probabilities computed by running the remaining Premier League schedule through our ELO-based Monte Carlo model. xG (expected goals) is estimated from each team's attack and defence ratings relative to their opponent.

How we compute these

Every week we rebuild ELO ratings for each club from historical match data, then run hundreds of thousands of Monte Carlo simulations of the remaining Premier League fixtures.Arsenal's row above shows the distribution of final league positions across those simulations, aggregated into the competitive outcomes that matter.