Arsenal is the slight favourite on the road against Crystal Palace in Premier League, winning 56.7% of simulations to Crystal Palace's 18.9% (24.4% draw). Expected goals land at 0.92 for Crystal Palace and 1.58 for Arsenal, consistent with the win-probability split above. Season-wide, Crystal Palace is projected to finish on 45.8 points (ELO 1428) while Arsenal is on 83.9 points (ELO 1721). Every number here is recomputed from scratch each week once the latest Premier League results are in, so the odds you see today reflect the current form of both teams — not a pre-season prediction.
Premier League · match prediction
Crystal Palace vs Arsenal
Last updated: 2026-05-19
Home win
Crystal Palace
18.9%
Draw
24.4%
Away win
Arsenal
56.7%
xG · Crystal Palace
0.92
xG · Arsenal
1.58
Home
Crystal Palace
- Expected points
- 45.8
- Most likely finish
- #15
- ELO
- 1428
Full season outlook →
Away
Arsenal
- Expected points
- 83.9
- Most likely finish
- #1
- ELO
- 1721
Full season outlook →
About this prediction
Football Probs runs hundreds of thousands of Monte Carlo simulations every week for Premier League. The match odds above come directly from those runs — no betting-market scraping, no hand-tuning. If you spot anything that looks wrong, the current round snapshot and the underlying ELO ratings are visible on each team's page.