LaLiga title race

Last updated: 2026-05-19

Every title probability below is averaged from hundreds of thousands of Monte Carlo simulations over the remaining LaLiga fixtures, seeded with ELO ratings we update after every real match. Teams are ordered by the chance of finishing first.

1. 1
   Barcelona

   xPts 95.7 · ELO 1822
   100.0%

   win league
2. 2
   Real Madrid

   xPts 85.1 · ELO 1695
   0.0%

   win league
3. 3
   Villarreal

   xPts 70.8 · ELO 1584
   0.0%

   win league
4. 4
   Atletico Madrid

   xPts 70.0 · ELO 1594
   0.0%

   win league
5. 5
   Betis

   xPts 58.8 · ELO 1560
   0.0%

   win league
6. 6
   Celta Vigo

   xPts 52.8 · ELO 1517
   0.0%

   win league
7. 7
   Getafe

   xPts 49.6 · ELO 1490
   0.0%

   win league
8. 8
   Rayo Vallecano

   xPts 48.1 · ELO 1522
   0.0%

   win league
9. 9
   Valencia

   xPts 47.0 · ELO 1489
   0.0%

   win league
10. 10
    Real Sociedad

    xPts 46.3 · ELO 1479
    0.0%

    win league

Full team pages: season outlook, position distribution, and upcoming match predictions are available by clicking any team name above. For the complete LaLiga table and heatmap, see the simulations dashboard.