Premier League title race

Last updated: 2026-05-19

Every title probability below is averaged from hundreds of thousands of Monte Carlo simulations over the remaining Premier League fixtures, seeded with ELO ratings we update after every real match. Teams are ordered by the chance of finishing first.

1. 1
   Arsenal

   xPts 83.9 · ELO 1721
   84.2%

   win league
2. 2
   Manchester City

   xPts 81.1 · ELO 1735
   15.8%

   win league
3. 3
   Manchester Utd

   xPts 69.1 · ELO 1657
   0.0%

   win league
4. 4
   Aston Villa

   xPts 62.5 · ELO 1538
   0.0%

   win league
5. 5
   Liverpool

   xPts 60.8 · ELO 1550
   0.0%

   win league
6. 6
   Bournemouth

   xPts 57.9 · ELO 1570
   0.0%

   win league
7. 7
   Brighton

   xPts 54.7 · ELO 1528
   0.0%

   win league
8. 8
   Brentford

   xPts 53.0 · ELO 1525
   0.0%

   win league
9. 9
   Sunderland

   xPts 51.9 · ELO 1449
   0.0%

   win league
10. 10
    Chelsea

    xPts 52.6 · ELO 1459
    0.0%

    win league

Full team pages: season outlook, position distribution, and upcoming match predictions are available by clicking any team name above. For the complete Premier League table and heatmap, see the simulations dashboard.