LaLiga relegation odds

Last updated: 2026-05-19

Relegation probabilities below are pulled from hundreds of thousands of Monte Carlo simulations of the remaining LaLiga season. Teams are ordered by their chance of finishing in the drop zone, with the current expected final points and ELO rating for context.

1. 1
   Oviedo

   xPts 30.1 · ELO 1345
   100.0%

   relegation risk
2. 2
   Mallorca

   xPts 40.7 · ELO 1414
   84.9%

   relegation risk
3. 3
   Girona

   xPts 41.9 · ELO 1426
   42.9%

   relegation risk
4. 4
   Levante

   xPts 43.0 · ELO 1504
   42.2%

   relegation risk
5. 5
   Elche

   xPts 42.9 · ELO 1448
   29.7%

   relegation risk
6. 6
   Osasuna

   xPts 43.1 · ELO 1433
   0.3%

   relegation risk

The full per-position distribution, upcoming fixtures, and historical round snapshots for any of these teams are available by clicking the team name, or see the interactive dashboard.