Our model makes Espanyol the favourite at home against Real Sociedad in LaLiga, winning the match in 39.6% of simulations compared to 35.5% for an away win and 24.9% for a draw. Expected goals land at 1.55 for Espanyol and 1.53 for Real Sociedad, consistent with the win-probability split above. Season-wide, Espanyol is projected to finish on 46.4 points (ELO 1414) while Real Sociedad is on 46.3 points (ELO 1479). Every number here is recomputed from scratch each week once the latest LaLiga results are in, so the odds you see today reflect the current form of both teams — not a pre-season prediction.
LaLiga · match prediction
Espanyol vs Real Sociedad
Last updated: 2026-05-19
Home win
Espanyol
39.6%
Draw
24.9%
Away win
Real Sociedad
35.5%
xG · Espanyol
1.55
xG · Real Sociedad
1.53
Home
Espanyol
- Expected points
- 46.4
- Most likely finish
- #9
- ELO
- 1414
Full season outlook →
Away
Real Sociedad
- Expected points
- 46.3
- Most likely finish
- #9
- ELO
- 1479
Full season outlook →
About this prediction
Football Probs runs hundreds of thousands of Monte Carlo simulations every week for LaLiga. The match odds above come directly from those runs — no betting-market scraping, no hand-tuning. If you spot anything that looks wrong, the current round snapshot and the underlying ELO ratings are visible on each team's page.