Premier League relegation odds

Last updated: 2026-05-19

Relegation probabilities below are pulled from hundreds of thousands of Monte Carlo simulations of the remaining Premier League season. Teams are ordered by their chance of finishing in the drop zone, with the current expected final points and ELO rating for context.

1. 1
   Burnley

   xPts 22.5 · ELO 1271
   100.0%

   relegation risk
2. 2
   Wolves

   xPts 20.2 · ELO 1293
   100.0%

   relegation risk
3. 3
   West Ham

   xPts 37.6 · ELO 1400
   91.4%

   relegation risk
4. 4
   Tottenham

   xPts 40.4 · ELO 1397
   8.6%

   relegation risk
5. 5
   Arsenal

   xPts 83.9 · ELO 1721
   0.0%

   relegation risk

The full per-position distribution, upcoming fixtures, and historical round snapshots for any of these teams are available by clicking the team name, or see the interactive dashboard.