Our model makes Chelsea the favourite at home against Tottenham in Premier League, winning the match in 52.0% of simulations compared to 24.4% for an away win and 23.6% for a draw. Expected goals land at 1.85 for Chelsea and 1.19 for Tottenham, consistent with the win-probability split above. Season-wide, Chelsea is projected to finish on 52.6 points (ELO 1459) while Tottenham is on 40.4 points (ELO 1397). Every number here is recomputed from scratch each week once the latest Premier League results are in, so the odds you see today reflect the current form of both teams — not a pre-season prediction.