Our model makes Real Madrid the favourite at home against Athletic Club in LaLiga, winning the match in 62.3% of simulations compared to 18.1% for an away win and 19.6% for a draw. Expected goals land at 2.23 for Real Madrid and 1.15 for Athletic Club, consistent with the win-probability split above. Season-wide, Real Madrid is projected to finish on 85.1 points (ELO 1695) while Athletic Club is on 45.8 points (ELO 1400). Every number here is recomputed from scratch each week once the latest LaLiga results are in, so the odds you see today reflect the current form of both teams — not a pre-season prediction.
LaLiga · match prediction
Real Madrid vs Athletic Club
Last updated: 2026-05-19
Home win
Real Madrid
62.3%
Draw
19.6%
Away win
Athletic Club
18.1%
xG · Real Madrid
2.23
xG · Athletic Club
1.15
Home
Real Madrid
- Expected points
- 85.1
- Most likely finish
- #2
- ELO
- 1695
Full season outlook →
Away
Athletic Club
- Expected points
- 45.8
- Most likely finish
- #13
- ELO
- 1400
Full season outlook →
About this prediction
Football Probs runs hundreds of thousands of Monte Carlo simulations every week for LaLiga. The match odds above come directly from those runs — no betting-market scraping, no hand-tuning. If you spot anything that looks wrong, the current round snapshot and the underlying ELO ratings are visible on each team's page.