Our model makes Almeria the favourite at home against Malaga in LaLiga Hypermotion, winning the match in 46.9% of simulations compared to 30.5% for an away win and 22.7% for a draw. Expected goals land at 1.97 for Almeria and 1.57 for Malaga, consistent with the win-probability split above. Season-wide, Almeria is projected to finish on 75.6 points (ELO 1591) while Malaga is on 74.1 points (ELO 1670). Every number here is recomputed from scratch each week once the latest LaLiga Hypermotion results are in, so the odds you see today reflect the current form of both teams — not a pre-season prediction.
LaLiga Hypermotion · match prediction
Almeria vs Malaga
Last updated: 2026-06-16
Home win
Almeria
46.9%
Draw
22.7%
Away win
Malaga
30.5%
xG · Almeria
1.97
xG · Malaga
1.57
Home
Almeria
- Expected points
- 75.6
- Most likely finish
- #3
- ELO
- 1591
Full season outlook →
Away
Malaga
- Expected points
- 74.1
- Most likely finish
- #4
- ELO
- 1670
Full season outlook →
About this prediction
Football Probs runs hundreds of thousands of Monte Carlo simulations every week for LaLiga Hypermotion. The match odds above come directly from those runs — no betting-market scraping, no hand-tuning. If you spot anything that looks wrong, the current round snapshot and the underlying ELO ratings are visible on each team's page.