Our model makes Almeria the favourite at home against Castellon in LaLiga Hypermotion, winning the match in 49.4% of simulations compared to 29.9% for an away win and 20.7% for a draw. Expected goals land at 2.57 for Almeria and 1.89 for Castellon, consistent with the win-probability split above. Season-wide, Almeria is projected to finish on 75.7 points (ELO 1567) while Castellon is on 73.1 points (ELO 1640). Every number here is recomputed from scratch each week once the latest LaLiga Hypermotion results are in, so the odds you see today reflect the current form of both teams — not a pre-season prediction.
LaLiga Hypermotion · match prediction
Almeria vs Castellon
Last updated: 2026-06-09
Home win
Almeria
49.4%
Draw
20.7%
Away win
Castellon
29.9%
xG · Almeria
2.57
xG · Castellon
1.89
Home
Almeria
- Expected points
- 75.7
- Most likely finish
- #3
- ELO
- 1567
Full season outlook →
Away
Castellon
- Expected points
- 73.1
- Most likely finish
- #6
- ELO
- 1640
Full season outlook →
About this prediction
Football Probs runs hundreds of thousands of Monte Carlo simulations every week for LaLiga Hypermotion. The match odds above come directly from those runs — no betting-market scraping, no hand-tuning. If you spot anything that looks wrong, the current round snapshot and the underlying ELO ratings are visible on each team's page.